Forget one for mum, one for dad, one for Country - Japan is hoping for "whooooops, that's one for the country!"

A cheeky official in Japan concerned about the livability of his City, suggested secretly distributing punctured condoms to young married couples within his constituency to arrest the Country's rapidly declining birth rate and declining population. Whilst this official has been reprimanded and I am sure civil libertarians are well and truly up in arms over such ideas, if indeed the Country is to arrest these current trends, radical thinking will need to come into play.

Since 2011, the population of Japan has been declining, and by 2050, will approach a population base not seen in the country since the early 1960's, a decline of 80million people post 2011.

The facts are truly alarming in fostering ongoing economic growth and prosperity in Japan, and do require radical thinking in economic sustainability strategies that are based more around wealth creation than population sustaining. It also raises the typical questions of how the working population will sustain and support an aging non-workforce? What sort of health care system to create with what funding? How policy and economic activity will work in with evolving cultural norms? What is the future of the construction sector?

As evident in many developed nations, the declining marriage rate, the delays in the marriage age, delays in having children, and a population living longer, are contributing to the radical change in the population base of Japan. Whilst the birth rate in Niger was an astonishing 46.84 births per 1,000 population, the rate in Japan in 2013 was only 8.23. Here in Australia it was a modest 12.23 births per 1,000 persons. The rapid pace of this change is perhaps the most telling.

In 1970, the median age of brides on their first marriage was 24.2years, and by 2012, this had increased sharply to 29.2 years. Similarly, the median age of first time mothers had increased from 25.6years to 30.3years over this same period, those that are indeed actually having children. A survey released by a local magazine reported that one third of respondents did not see the point in marriage, with 30-somethings particularly ambivalent towards marriage. Given that very few children in Japan (around 2%) are born outside of wedlock, this ambivalence towards marriage suggests an even sharper declining birth rate is likely unless there are major shifts to influence this cultural phenomenon.

Incentives like paid parental leave, baby bonuses etc that have played a part in influencing birth rates in other developed nations are unlikely to influence such an environment where there is ambivalence to the institution of marriage and an increasingly singular culture in Japan. The withdrawal of its youth from society is a critical cause for concern, even coining its own terms - Hikkamori (essentially meaning withdrawing) and SNEP's - Solitary Non-Employed Persons; an effective means of contraception requiring a national commitment to cultural change and understanding not simply deceptive techniques.

Queensland Plan Ambitious, Bold or Achievable?

The Qld Plan makes no excuses for being, in the Premier's words "bold, brassy, in your face" with a big vision for Queensland as a strong, sustainable state.

One of the bold visions in this Plan is promoting population growth in Regional Queensland - doubling the population of Regional Queensland over the next 30 years. This is a major shift in both where population growth has focused in the State, and in State policy thinking. Doubling of the population outside South East Queensland, would essentially equate to a population size of three new Gold Coasts.

The draft Plan had identified a vision of 50% of the State's population living outside SEQld. In context, in 1981 just on 60% of the State's population was living in SEQld. By 2013, SEQ housed just over two thirds of the State's population, suggesting that a 50/50 share of the population would be a major shift over the next 30 years. Certainly when setting an agenda to grow, develop and prosper, it is appropriate to set stretch targets, but they need to have a foundation, substance and be achievable. The Final Plan has now identified that such a split would indeed be ambitious and has modified this vision to doubling the population of Regional Qld over the next 30 years.

The State Government released its own population projections earlier this year, anticipating an INCREASE in the share of the population living in SEQld to 69% by 2036, with a growth of some 600,000 persons projected outside of SEQld to 2036. In order to meet the Qld Plan vision of a doubling of the population in Regional Qld over the next 30 years, an additional 1 million people will need to be moving to Regional Queensland in the decade post 2036. These official population projections are based on trends, what has typically happened, and are utilised by both State and local governments in planning for the provision of infrastructure, development, preparation of new planning schemes. Where and when new schools will be built, additional roads, hospital beds, aged care beds etc.

That there is a major divergence between the State's population projections and its vision for the State suggests that there will need to be a major shift in policy thinking at the State level to commit to investment and infrastructure, in targeting and attracting employment opportunities and ensuring our regional places are attractive places to live, work, play and educate.

Commitment from all levels of government and across all policy streams will be critical, at levels of investment that are unprecedented and requiring community and the commercial sector to back regional winners. This is a strategy aimed at growing the economic wealth of regional Queensland, not putting up the full sign in SEQld, but diversifying Qld's economic base, recognising the geographic alignment and opportunities of northern Queensland with Asia and seeking to improve the wealth and wellbeing of regional Queensland.

Doubling the population in Regional Queensland in 30 years?

Ambitious, a stretch, certainly "out-there" but supported by a clear policy direction across all Government can provide confidence to grow our Regions, to create jobs and opportunities in our Regions and to do so sustainably.

World Economic Cup: Australia Versus the Group of Death

The World Economic Cup
June 2014
It has been a long wait, but the time is almost here for the kick-off of the World Economic Cup. Australia has been drawn in the same group as the Netherlands, Chile and Spain. Urban Economics takes a look at the teams and their prospects.

Australia
World GDP Ranking (2012): 12th

The clear favourite in this group, Australia continues to kick economic goals on the world stage. Since aligning themselves with the Asian economic leagues, the team has dramatically expanded their export volumes, although they tend to be over-reliant on their mining midfield. The foundations of the team remain solid, having stable governance and incremental economic reforms over many years. With the financial sector as safe as a bank at the back and the always underrated education export sector providing variety in attack, Australia should be able to overcome a lack of depth in manufacturing and will be optimistic of finishing on top of this group.

They are not without their concerns though. Questions remain whether their star-studded mining line-up is past their peak and there is the on-going controversy whether some of Australia’s mining players even qualify to represent the nation. Australia’s high currency remains a concern and their new manager, Tony Abbott, has come in for some heavy criticism regarding his new tactics.

Netherlands
World GDP Ranking (2012): 18th

The match-up between the energy sectors of the Netherlands and Australia promises to be one of the highlights of the tournament. The Netherlands has a strong gas sector, both on-shore and from the North Sea and the team is the fifth largest natural gas exporter.
While the Netherlands may be small in size and population, they have a strong track record and punch well above their weight on the world economic stage. They are the sixth largest exporter (by value) in the world, benefitting from being in the EU. The Netherlands is the second largest exporter (by value) of agricultural products behind only the United States by establishing itself as the world’s leader in the high-end cut flower and live plant export markets.
The team is bolstered by very competitive corporate tax rates. Netherlands will field a side including several players that star in the biggest leagues of the world and will be relying on the bankable ING, the fluidity of Heineken and the guidance of TomTom. This team has the work ethic, resilience, economic structure and big names to go far in this tournament.

Spain
World GDP Ranking (2012): 13th

While ranked only one place behind Australia, Spain is a team in turmoil. Repeatedly smashed by Global FC in 2008 and 2009, Spain fell into a deep recession and has yet to substantially recover. Unemployment is rampant, the economy has collapsed and the government’s debt is massive.
Worryingly, this team is notorious for having no energy meaning it must import all its fuel requirements, making it vulnerable to shocks in this sector. Further adding to the nation’s woes, Spain’s youth team has barely gotten onto the economic playing field, with youth unemployment at a staggering 57.7%.
While major troubles continue to plague the team, the sheer volume of their economy, their experience and the backing of the EU mean that this team may well yet be a threat. Spain will be relying on manufacturing and tourism to overcome the resource-based strengths of the other countries in the group. Spain has a large car and car parts manufacturing sector, with major European brands having sizeable plants in Spain. In 2012, Spain was ranked fourth in the world in the number of international visitors, attracting some 57.7 million visitors, almost 10 times that of Australia.

Chile
World GDP Ranking (2012): 37th

Don’t let the GDP ranking fool you, this nation is on the rise and is a South American powerhouse. Another team that is dominated by miners, it produces one third of the world’s copper output. A leader in the South American conference, Chile has the highest standard of living and per capita GDP in Latin America.
Even more reliant on their miners than Australia, Chile has been criticised for being too one dimensional in attack. However, with a growing and increasingly influential middle class and bolstered by agricultural exports, particularly wine and fish products, the Chileans will be confident of causing some upsets in this group. Santiago is a thriving city with a growing reputation for innovation.

Tip

We predict that Australia will finish on top of this group, with the Netherlands just holding out Chile for second. Spain is unlikely to get a point and will finish last. This, unfortunately, is the exact inverse of our tip for how the group will fare in the football World Cup. Prove us wrong Socceroos!!!

Urban Excursions explores New York's Highline

The Highline – New York

With the Federal Budget released this month and the various interest groups still picking their way through the detail *yawn*, Josh takes a detour to New York and guides us down The High Line; an urban reproject that has had economic benefits that nobody budgeted for.

Nowhere in New York is ‘The City That Never Sleeps’ more apparent than the Meatpacking District where fashion, industry, nightlife and culture collide to epitomise New York style. Steeped in history the Meatpacking District as its name suggests was once a hub for trade and included hundreds of slaughterhouses and meatworks which sent and received product via a raised railway now known as ‘The High Line’.

Land on New York’s Manhattan Island is rare and expensive attracting development and investment from the biggest and boldest in the industry. It is of no surprise then, that the area occupied by some 3km of disused and dilapidated railway line dissecting one of its most recognisable areas was under pressure from developers to be torn down, a sentiment shared by former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani over a decade ago. Come my visit in 2013, The Highline was far from being removed and touted by outgoing Mayor Bloomberg as an ‘economic dynamo’.

So what changed?

Following the end of the High Line’s life as a rail track in the 1980’s, community and activist pressure saved a significant proportion of the structure from being demolished and subsequently formed a group, ‘Friends of the High Line’ which initiated planning and design for the raised track to become a public open space in the essence of Paris’s Promenade Plantée (tree-lined walkway). With construction on the third and final stage of the project underway when I arrived at the High Line via the 30th St entrance, it was already possible to recognise the economic activity which had been spurred by the some 4 million visitors per annum that it was attracting.
New apartment buildings were rising alongside historic meatworks and public housing, restaurants and artisans were squeezing into shop-fronts nearest the High Line entrances and mobile vendors patrolled the green course with the typical New York vigour. Some $2 billion worth of new investment has been attributed to the rejuvenation of the High Line, not including the $450 million Whitney Museum of Modern Art.

Residential real estate prices have also jumped (which is no surprise given how close trains used to come to the back of these apartments). On average, home prices in the Chelsea/Meatpacking District are around $1,600 per square foot, or over $1 million for a modest 60m2 apartment.

So, High Lines, Promenade Plantées, coulée vertes and green spines as tools for economic development? Apparently it’s a thing and the High Line has been attributed with inspiring numerous copy cats around the globe. Even Sydney has got in on the act, planning for ‘The Goods Line’ which will link Railway Square through Ultimo to Darling Harbour.

What economic potential could Brisbane’s mooted ‘Green Spine’ deliver? Maybe Brisbane’s BaT Tunnel (overlooked in Budget funding) will one day be more attractive as ‘The Low Line’?

A few World Cup Stats to get you in the mood as the Socceroos hit the road to #Brazil

World Cup-onomics


World Cup Brazil by Numbers:

$35 million - First Prize
$4 billion - FIFA's commercial revenue
$16 billion - Cost to Brazil
200 million - Population of Brazil
$514 million - Estimated value of the 23-man Brazilian squad
$79 million - Amount Christiano Ronaldo will earn this year
$12,000 - Amount an average Brazilian worker will earn in a year
3,140km - Distance between the Arena Amazonia and Estadio Beira-Rio venues
74,698 - Seating capacity of Estadio Do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro
6 million - Tickets available to matches
64 - World Cup Finals matches
$553 - Average resale price for a group match ticket
$180,000 - Approximate melt value of the gold in the World Cup trophy
750/1 - Odds being placed on Australia to be the outright tournament winner

Population versus the Qld Plan

Last week saw the release of the latest population projections from the Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR).

Some quick analysis has revealed some drastic changes from the previous release in 2011, the majority of which have anticipated a further increase in the concentration of growth within SEQ. Whilst this is not a totally surprising development, it is at odds with one of the target objectives within 'The Queensland Plan' which states "Half of Queensland's population lives outside South East Queensland". Currently supporting around 67% of QLD's population, SEQ is expected to increase its proportion to around 69% by 2036 to over 4.9 million people. We have long challenged the separation of regional planning from infrastructure planning and economic strategic planning. The population projections will have a significant input to the preparation of the new SEQ Regional Plan, but how do they sit with the Queensland Plan? Does this mean that the Queensland Plan will be simply rhetoric with little substance if regional planning continues to focus economic and population activity within the Sout East and not to reflect the Qld Plan intent to populate and grow economic strength of regional Qld?

The following are the Top 10 changes to population projections by 2031 for statistical areas between the OESR 2011 and 2013 editions, with some rather big "winners" in Coomera and Upper Coomera

Ripley -31,929

Coomera 25,280

Rosewood -19,949

Upper Caboolture 16,885

Greenbank 15,919

Inala - Richlands 15,538

Upper Coomera - Willow Vale 13,175

Helensvale -12,054

Springfield Lakes 11,987

Landsborough 11,604

No doubt this will require some radical new thinking for planning the mix of housing that will be required to accommodate these population changes in the "win" areas as there is quite a vast shift in some areas that will influence infill and greenfield targets for Ipswich, Moreton and Gold Coast. It is interesting to see some expectation of population growth in employment corridors eg. Inala-Richlands, although the majority of the growth "win" areas are greenfield areas detached from employment opportunities. Ripley, which was to provide significant employment for its growth corridorm, now with significant downwards projections on its population potential by 2031 - surely this will have significant implications also for the delivery of employment for the western corridor?

Waiting with interest for the first draft of the SEQ Regional Plan revision.

Oktoberfest-ographics

As we say auf wiedersehen to Oktoberfest for another year, Kerri visits some Australian regions with Germanic roots. Urban Excursions October 2012 brought to you the Oktoberfestonomics, the price of a pint of beer in Australia relative to other countries as we saluted our love of German beer, German sausage and all things Oktoberfest. This year, we explore our Germanic demographic roots, Oktoberfestographics if you like. Well you cannot have a surname like Meulman without laying some claim to Germanic origins and all things Oktoberfest. Whilst my ancestors claim to be Dutch, there is some very small question mark over whether or not there is actually some German descent in my blood, and like many towns across Australia that changed their names at the time of World War I, did my ancestors deny their German heritage? It will remain a mystery, but in any event I am happy to claim some German heritage and this October 2013 edition of Urban Excursions explores Australia’s Germanic roots and ancestry.

Whilst a number of towns with German names or of German origin did indeed change their names around the time of the Great War, others survived or did not change. Hahndorf in the Adelaide Hills is perhaps the first that comes to mind when we think about German settlements and concentrations in Australia. The town of Hahndorf lays claim to being Australia’s oldest surviving German settlement and now has a significant tourist and day tripper function, but it too did not survive the anti-German sentiment at the time of the Great War and was renamed Ambleside, not reverting to its original name until the State’s Centenary celebrations in 1935. The original German Lutheran settlers in the Hahndorf area came to Australia fleeing religious persecution from the King of Prussia at the time. Sound familiar?

Establishing crops, the area became an important fruit and vegetable supplier for Adelaide and South Australia. The town and surrounding Adelaide Hills area retain strong linkages with their German heritage, with 11.5% of the residents of Hahndorf identifying as having German ancestry (compared with only 3.2% for Australia as a whole) and a significant 14.2% identified with the Lutheran religion, compared with only 1.2% Australia wide. Similarly, the Barossa Valley, famed for its wineries and vineyards, was originally settled by German Lutherans, with almost one quarter of residents of the Barossa-Tanunda SA2 identifying German ancestry and a significant 40% of residents were Lutheran at the time of the 2011 Census. Many of the now famous Australian wineries were established in the Barossa during this period; Seppelt, Penfolds, Tolleys, Jacob’s to name a few.

Another of Australia’s prominent fruit and vegetable growing regions, the Lockyer Valley, also claims strong German heritage. Almost 12% of residents of Gatton and 10% of the Lockyer Valley Regional Council area overall, identifying with German ancestry. The wave of German immigrants to Queensland was again effectively forced migration fleeing famine and poor agricultural conditions, in search of employment – again familiar? German migrants were recruited to the Darling Downs to work as shepherds to assist large pastoralists care for their flocks. The Eastern Darling Downs (excluding Toowoomba) including areas such as Oakey and Dalby also represents higher incidences of those of German ancestry (9.5%) Other towns such as Kalbar (formerly Englesburg but changed its name in the lead up to the Great War) and Marburg also represent significant concentrations of those with German ancestry compared with the national average (12.1% and 9.2% compared with 3.2%).

Both Queensland and South Australia have more prominent incidences of those of German ancestry than the other states and the Australian average, established by waves of effectively forced migration and laying claim to much of the development of the renowned food bowl areas of the Adelaide Hills and Barossa, the Lockyer Valley and Darling Downs. It may have been the original British settlers who brought beer to Australia, but as we come to the end of another Oktoberfest, we raise a glass to our German ancestors and shout “Prost!” or Cheers guys, until next month. Now……Ein Bier, bitte!!