The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) logo statement for its Census is "A Brighter Future" but its controversial proposal to dump the 2016 Census in favour of Censuses every 10 years has rung alarm bells about what this future might mean!
Australia, New Zealand, Canada are amongst those countries that continue to undertake 5 yearly Censuses, providing timely population, household and working data information public and private sector decision making. Naturally, the costs and resources involved in such an undertaking are high. The ABS has cited the $440million costs of the 2011 Census collection as a key consideration in evaluating its options for 2016 and beyond. Moreover, the ABS has indicated that whilst it has actively been preparing to conduct the 2016 Census, it has just as actively been preparing other strategies and approaches to not undertake the Census in 2016. The problem here is, what does this mean for those businesses, planning organisations and government agencies relying on the future release of data from the 2016 Census to assist their own planning decisions?
The implications and impacts are and will be far reaching of any major change to the ABS’s collection and dissemination of data. But why the cloak and dagger games? Why only now, when there is little time for other organisations to plan for their own data interrogation, has the ABS started this discussion?
New Zealand is also considering the future of its data collection and Census programs, but has undertaken consultation and prepared a range of technical papers reviewing the options and implications of Census periods and alternative collection methods. Statistics New Zealand has maintained a clear and transparent strategy in reviewing its Census process, and has a clear mandate to phase in a range of alternative collection tools, recognising that rapid change to collection methods will not only have teething problems when it comes to the rigour and validity of the data, but the needs of the many stakeholders relying on the validity and timeliness of the data must also be considered. Something perhaps the ABS has forgotten in its haste to stave off costs?
This is simply not a change that can be implemented over night, or even within 12months. Let us not forget the labour force statistics farce the ABS has needed to rectify!
Whilst there are alternative methods of collection – eg. increasing mail distribution of the survey and internet response rates, there are a raft of administrative methods that could also be applied, as are increasingly investigated and utilised in countries such as Italy. Collection and collation of administrative data such as electoral role, taxation and Centrelink information would offer a range of population, key demographic and socio-economic variables that can be updated regularly and present a useful snapshot between major Censuses or as alternative collection method. However, these administrative methods certainly take considerable time to adopt, implement, correlate and geographically reference. Extreme Data Mining! Confirming the validity of the collection and collation of these administrative tools should be based on interrogation with Census data before fully relying on these administrative tools. Not something that can be done with little more than 12 months before the next scheduled Census.
And what about understanding our working population – where people work, and the profile of this working community is also critical in local community planning and investment decision activity. Ensuring that there is a collection method to understand our working communities is vital!
It is not only about the costs of collection to the ABS that need to be factored in. What about the costs to government agencies, the not-for-profit and private sector to collect and collate other data? The impacts on decision making without timely, accurate datasets. A halt to both public and private sector investment activity right at the time we need to be stimulating economic activity in Australia.
This is not “a Brighter Future”. More certainty. More clarity. More information needed!
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Monday, November 3, 2014
Cruising
It has been more than 2 years since Urban Excursions last explored the cruising sector, and with the start of the peak cruising season in Australia, the imminent launch of Quantum of the Seas the world’s largest cruise ship, not to mention the ongoing debate about the Gold Coast cruise ship terminal, our attention once again turns wistfully seaward! 
Grand Cayman Is Caribbean Cruise
The Australian cruise sector represents approximately 3.6% of the global cruise market, and is the fastest growing cruising market, with considerable capacity for growth in market penetration. During 2013, approximately 760,000 Australian passengers took a cruise, equivalent to a market penetration of some 3.3%. Deloitte estimated that the cruise ship industry in Australia contributed some $828million (value added) to the Australian economy in 2010/11. In Brisbane alone, it is estimated that the contribution of the cruise industry would double between 2010/11 and 2019/20 (Deloitte), although this is very much dependent on the availability of infrastructure to service the cruise industry.
Worldwide, the cruise industry is in the midst of a renaissance of sorts, with companies competing to build ever grander, larger, more experiential ships, exploring an increasingly exotic array of destinations, and attracting a more diverse market of passengers. Launching in less than one month, the Royal Caribbean’s latest offer, Quantum of the Seas, will have a capacity of almost 5,000 passengers, and will debut a range of new features including Jamie’s Italian restaurant by Jamie Oliver. The emphasis is on new products and experiences designed to “wow!” passengers, creating floating urban oases, complete with health and wellbeing centres, theatres and cinema, recreation and leisure activities, choice in restaurants and dining venues, retail, bars and nightclubs, library etc.
But these floating cities are not only targeting cruise tourists, with a number of studies comparing the costs of living on board as a permanent cruise passenger with the costs of living in a retirement complex. Typically these studies have factored in the cost of the accommodation and access to leisure facilities only and exclude meals, entertainment, and the more esoteric values of travel experiences, your meals cooked for you, etc. Factoring both quantitative and qualitative measures, there may be little difference between cruise retirement and independent retirement living, but would you mind the ongoing influx of new, excitable holiday makers heading straight for the bar and the buffet?
In saying this, there is a range of emerging resident focused cruise ships that seek to remove the insidious holiday hell-raisers, in creating that idyllic cruise-living lifestyle. The most famous of these, The World, was launched in 2002 offering only 165 residences ranging from studio rooms to three bedroom apartments, and worldwide itineraries. Cruise Retirement is also proposing to launch its first vessel in April 2015, particularly aimed at retirees seeking to live permanently or for long periods on board, an alternative to independent living or assisted living retirement, and has visions for a fleet of these cruise retirement lifestyles.
So back to cruise holidays, I have been lucky to have embarked on cruises from epic ports such as Barcelona and Fort Lauderdale, an experience in themselves, in efficiently dealing with thousands of arriving and departing passengers on any one day, unlike the Sydney traffic bottlenecks and long lines of embarking passengers stretching along Darling Harbour waiting, check-in or the often laughed at docking of larger cruise ships and luxury liners at Luggage Point in Brisbane – what a welcome! Certainly, the terminals themselves at Barcelona and Fort Lauderdale are not inducements to spend, and are essentially check in and waiting facilities only – no wasting money before boarding the ship, but they are significant economic and employment generators for their local and regional economies.
It is an accepted rule of thumb in the industry that on average, passengers will spend $100 per person in a port of call on a cruise holiday, in addition to expenditure by crew and direct expenses by the cruise ship on supplies, port taxes and berthing fees etc.
Infrastructure is fundamentally critical to the future growth of Australia’s cruise industry and the economic benefits and opportunities to be enjoyed by Australian ports. In particular, there are considerable opportunities for Brisbane in its proximity to the South Pacific Islands and emerging markets such as Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, relative to Sydney and Melbourne, to continue to enjoy strong growth and attract larger ships homeporting out of Brisbane or including Brisbane on their itineraries.
So as I await the arrival of Legend of the Seas, the largest cruise ship to be homeporting out of Brisbane from December 2015, I look forward to Brisbane emerging as a truly worldclass cruise port with infrastructure to match. Maybe. One Day.
Grand Cayman Is Caribbean Cruise
The Australian cruise sector represents approximately 3.6% of the global cruise market, and is the fastest growing cruising market, with considerable capacity for growth in market penetration. During 2013, approximately 760,000 Australian passengers took a cruise, equivalent to a market penetration of some 3.3%. Deloitte estimated that the cruise ship industry in Australia contributed some $828million (value added) to the Australian economy in 2010/11. In Brisbane alone, it is estimated that the contribution of the cruise industry would double between 2010/11 and 2019/20 (Deloitte), although this is very much dependent on the availability of infrastructure to service the cruise industry.
Worldwide, the cruise industry is in the midst of a renaissance of sorts, with companies competing to build ever grander, larger, more experiential ships, exploring an increasingly exotic array of destinations, and attracting a more diverse market of passengers. Launching in less than one month, the Royal Caribbean’s latest offer, Quantum of the Seas, will have a capacity of almost 5,000 passengers, and will debut a range of new features including Jamie’s Italian restaurant by Jamie Oliver. The emphasis is on new products and experiences designed to “wow!” passengers, creating floating urban oases, complete with health and wellbeing centres, theatres and cinema, recreation and leisure activities, choice in restaurants and dining venues, retail, bars and nightclubs, library etc.
But these floating cities are not only targeting cruise tourists, with a number of studies comparing the costs of living on board as a permanent cruise passenger with the costs of living in a retirement complex. Typically these studies have factored in the cost of the accommodation and access to leisure facilities only and exclude meals, entertainment, and the more esoteric values of travel experiences, your meals cooked for you, etc. Factoring both quantitative and qualitative measures, there may be little difference between cruise retirement and independent retirement living, but would you mind the ongoing influx of new, excitable holiday makers heading straight for the bar and the buffet?
In saying this, there is a range of emerging resident focused cruise ships that seek to remove the insidious holiday hell-raisers, in creating that idyllic cruise-living lifestyle. The most famous of these, The World, was launched in 2002 offering only 165 residences ranging from studio rooms to three bedroom apartments, and worldwide itineraries. Cruise Retirement is also proposing to launch its first vessel in April 2015, particularly aimed at retirees seeking to live permanently or for long periods on board, an alternative to independent living or assisted living retirement, and has visions for a fleet of these cruise retirement lifestyles.
So back to cruise holidays, I have been lucky to have embarked on cruises from epic ports such as Barcelona and Fort Lauderdale, an experience in themselves, in efficiently dealing with thousands of arriving and departing passengers on any one day, unlike the Sydney traffic bottlenecks and long lines of embarking passengers stretching along Darling Harbour waiting, check-in or the often laughed at docking of larger cruise ships and luxury liners at Luggage Point in Brisbane – what a welcome! Certainly, the terminals themselves at Barcelona and Fort Lauderdale are not inducements to spend, and are essentially check in and waiting facilities only – no wasting money before boarding the ship, but they are significant economic and employment generators for their local and regional economies.
It is an accepted rule of thumb in the industry that on average, passengers will spend $100 per person in a port of call on a cruise holiday, in addition to expenditure by crew and direct expenses by the cruise ship on supplies, port taxes and berthing fees etc.
Infrastructure is fundamentally critical to the future growth of Australia’s cruise industry and the economic benefits and opportunities to be enjoyed by Australian ports. In particular, there are considerable opportunities for Brisbane in its proximity to the South Pacific Islands and emerging markets such as Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands, relative to Sydney and Melbourne, to continue to enjoy strong growth and attract larger ships homeporting out of Brisbane or including Brisbane on their itineraries.
So as I await the arrival of Legend of the Seas, the largest cruise ship to be homeporting out of Brisbane from December 2015, I look forward to Brisbane emerging as a truly worldclass cruise port with infrastructure to match. Maybe. One Day.
Wednesday, August 6, 2014
Forget one for mum, one for dad, one for Country - Japan is hoping for "whooooops, that's one for the country!"
A cheeky official in Japan concerned about the livability of his City, suggested secretly distributing punctured condoms to young married couples within his constituency to arrest the Country's rapidly declining birth rate and declining population. Whilst this official has been reprimanded and I am sure civil libertarians are well and truly up in arms over such ideas, if indeed the Country is to arrest these current trends, radical thinking will need to come into play.
Since 2011, the population of Japan has been declining, and by 2050, will approach a population base not seen in the country since the early 1960's, a decline of 80million people post 2011.
The facts are truly alarming in fostering ongoing economic growth and prosperity in Japan, and do require radical thinking in economic sustainability strategies that are based more around wealth creation than population sustaining. It also raises the typical questions of how the working population will sustain and support an aging non-workforce? What sort of health care system to create with what funding? How policy and economic activity will work in with evolving cultural norms? What is the future of the construction sector?
As evident in many developed nations, the declining marriage rate, the delays in the marriage age, delays in having children, and a population living longer, are contributing to the radical change in the population base of Japan. Whilst the birth rate in Niger was an astonishing 46.84 births per 1,000 population, the rate in Japan in 2013 was only 8.23. Here in Australia it was a modest 12.23 births per 1,000 persons. The rapid pace of this change is perhaps the most telling.
In 1970, the median age of brides on their first marriage was 24.2years, and by 2012, this had increased sharply to 29.2 years. Similarly, the median age of first time mothers had increased from 25.6years to 30.3years over this same period, those that are indeed actually having children. A survey released by a local magazine reported that one third of respondents did not see the point in marriage, with 30-somethings particularly ambivalent towards marriage. Given that very few children in Japan (around 2%) are born outside of wedlock, this ambivalence towards marriage suggests an even sharper declining birth rate is likely unless there are major shifts to influence this cultural phenomenon.
Incentives like paid parental leave, baby bonuses etc that have played a part in influencing birth rates in other developed nations are unlikely to influence such an environment where there is ambivalence to the institution of marriage and an increasingly singular culture in Japan. The withdrawal of its youth from society is a critical cause for concern, even coining its own terms - Hikkamori (essentially meaning withdrawing) and SNEP's - Solitary Non-Employed Persons; an effective means of contraception requiring a national commitment to cultural change and understanding not simply deceptive techniques.
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Queensland Plan Ambitious, Bold or Achievable?
The Qld Plan makes no excuses for being, in the Premier's words "bold, brassy, in your face" with a big vision for Queensland as a strong, sustainable state.
One of the bold visions in this Plan is promoting population growth in Regional Queensland - doubling the population of Regional Queensland over the next 30 years. This is a major shift in both where population growth has focused in the State, and in State policy thinking. Doubling of the population outside South East Queensland, would essentially equate to a population size of three new Gold Coasts.
The draft Plan had identified a vision of 50% of the State's population living outside SEQld. In context, in 1981 just on 60% of the State's population was living in SEQld. By 2013, SEQ housed just over two thirds of the State's population, suggesting that a 50/50 share of the population would be a major shift over the next 30 years. Certainly when setting an agenda to grow, develop and prosper, it is appropriate to set stretch targets, but they need to have a foundation, substance and be achievable. The Final Plan has now identified that such a split would indeed be ambitious and has modified this vision to doubling the population of Regional Qld over the next 30 years.
The State Government released its own population projections earlier this year, anticipating an INCREASE in the share of the population living in SEQld to 69% by 2036, with a growth of some 600,000 persons projected outside of SEQld to 2036. In order to meet the Qld Plan vision of a doubling of the population in Regional Qld over the next 30 years, an additional 1 million people will need to be moving to Regional Queensland in the decade post 2036. These official population projections are based on trends, what has typically happened, and are utilised by both State and local governments in planning for the provision of infrastructure, development, preparation of new planning schemes. Where and when new schools will be built, additional roads, hospital beds, aged care beds etc.
That there is a major divergence between the State's population projections and its vision for the State suggests that there will need to be a major shift in policy thinking at the State level to commit to investment and infrastructure, in targeting and attracting employment opportunities and ensuring our regional places are attractive places to live, work, play and educate.
Commitment from all levels of government and across all policy streams will be critical, at levels of investment that are unprecedented and requiring community and the commercial sector to back regional winners. This is a strategy aimed at growing the economic wealth of regional Queensland, not putting up the full sign in SEQld, but diversifying Qld's economic base, recognising the geographic alignment and opportunities of northern Queensland with Asia and seeking to improve the wealth and wellbeing of regional Queensland.
Doubling the population in Regional Queensland in 30 years?
Ambitious, a stretch, certainly "out-there" but supported by a clear policy direction across all Government can provide confidence to grow our Regions, to create jobs and opportunities in our Regions and to do so sustainably.
One of the bold visions in this Plan is promoting population growth in Regional Queensland - doubling the population of Regional Queensland over the next 30 years. This is a major shift in both where population growth has focused in the State, and in State policy thinking. Doubling of the population outside South East Queensland, would essentially equate to a population size of three new Gold Coasts.
The draft Plan had identified a vision of 50% of the State's population living outside SEQld. In context, in 1981 just on 60% of the State's population was living in SEQld. By 2013, SEQ housed just over two thirds of the State's population, suggesting that a 50/50 share of the population would be a major shift over the next 30 years. Certainly when setting an agenda to grow, develop and prosper, it is appropriate to set stretch targets, but they need to have a foundation, substance and be achievable. The Final Plan has now identified that such a split would indeed be ambitious and has modified this vision to doubling the population of Regional Qld over the next 30 years.
The State Government released its own population projections earlier this year, anticipating an INCREASE in the share of the population living in SEQld to 69% by 2036, with a growth of some 600,000 persons projected outside of SEQld to 2036. In order to meet the Qld Plan vision of a doubling of the population in Regional Qld over the next 30 years, an additional 1 million people will need to be moving to Regional Queensland in the decade post 2036. These official population projections are based on trends, what has typically happened, and are utilised by both State and local governments in planning for the provision of infrastructure, development, preparation of new planning schemes. Where and when new schools will be built, additional roads, hospital beds, aged care beds etc.
That there is a major divergence between the State's population projections and its vision for the State suggests that there will need to be a major shift in policy thinking at the State level to commit to investment and infrastructure, in targeting and attracting employment opportunities and ensuring our regional places are attractive places to live, work, play and educate.
Commitment from all levels of government and across all policy streams will be critical, at levels of investment that are unprecedented and requiring community and the commercial sector to back regional winners. This is a strategy aimed at growing the economic wealth of regional Queensland, not putting up the full sign in SEQld, but diversifying Qld's economic base, recognising the geographic alignment and opportunities of northern Queensland with Asia and seeking to improve the wealth and wellbeing of regional Queensland.
Doubling the population in Regional Queensland in 30 years?
Ambitious, a stretch, certainly "out-there" but supported by a clear policy direction across all Government can provide confidence to grow our Regions, to create jobs and opportunities in our Regions and to do so sustainably.
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
World Economic Cup: Australia Versus the Group of Death
The World Economic Cup
June 2014
It has been a long wait, but the time is almost here for the kick-off of the World Economic Cup. Australia has been drawn in the same group as the Netherlands, Chile and Spain. Urban Economics takes a look at the teams and their prospects.
Australia
World GDP Ranking (2012): 12th
The clear favourite in this group, Australia continues to kick economic goals on the world stage. Since aligning themselves with the Asian economic leagues, the team has dramatically expanded their export volumes, although they tend to be over-reliant on their mining midfield. The foundations of the team remain solid, having stable governance and incremental economic reforms over many years. With the financial sector as safe as a bank at the back and the always underrated education export sector providing variety in attack, Australia should be able to overcome a lack of depth in manufacturing and will be optimistic of finishing on top of this group.
They are not without their concerns though. Questions remain whether their star-studded mining line-up is past their peak and there is the on-going controversy whether some of Australia’s mining players even qualify to represent the nation. Australia’s high currency remains a concern and their new manager, Tony Abbott, has come in for some heavy criticism regarding his new tactics.
Netherlands
World GDP Ranking (2012): 18th
The match-up between the energy sectors of the Netherlands and Australia promises to be one of the highlights of the tournament. The Netherlands has a strong gas sector, both on-shore and from the North Sea and the team is the fifth largest natural gas exporter.
While the Netherlands may be small in size and population, they have a strong track record and punch well above their weight on the world economic stage. They are the sixth largest exporter (by value) in the world, benefitting from being in the EU. The Netherlands is the second largest exporter (by value) of agricultural products behind only the United States by establishing itself as the world’s leader in the high-end cut flower and live plant export markets.
The team is bolstered by very competitive corporate tax rates. Netherlands will field a side including several players that star in the biggest leagues of the world and will be relying on the bankable ING, the fluidity of Heineken and the guidance of TomTom. This team has the work ethic, resilience, economic structure and big names to go far in this tournament.
Spain
World GDP Ranking (2012): 13th
While ranked only one place behind Australia, Spain is a team in turmoil. Repeatedly smashed by Global FC in 2008 and 2009, Spain fell into a deep recession and has yet to substantially recover. Unemployment is rampant, the economy has collapsed and the government’s debt is massive.
Worryingly, this team is notorious for having no energy meaning it must import all its fuel requirements, making it vulnerable to shocks in this sector. Further adding to the nation’s woes, Spain’s youth team has barely gotten onto the economic playing field, with youth unemployment at a staggering 57.7%.
While major troubles continue to plague the team, the sheer volume of their economy, their experience and the backing of the EU mean that this team may well yet be a threat. Spain will be relying on manufacturing and tourism to overcome the resource-based strengths of the other countries in the group. Spain has a large car and car parts manufacturing sector, with major European brands having sizeable plants in Spain. In 2012, Spain was ranked fourth in the world in the number of international visitors, attracting some 57.7 million visitors, almost 10 times that of Australia.
Chile
World GDP Ranking (2012): 37th
Don’t let the GDP ranking fool you, this nation is on the rise and is a South American powerhouse. Another team that is dominated by miners, it produces one third of the world’s copper output. A leader in the South American conference, Chile has the highest standard of living and per capita GDP in Latin America.
Even more reliant on their miners than Australia, Chile has been criticised for being too one dimensional in attack. However, with a growing and increasingly influential middle class and bolstered by agricultural exports, particularly wine and fish products, the Chileans will be confident of causing some upsets in this group. Santiago is a thriving city with a growing reputation for innovation.
Tip
We predict that Australia will finish on top of this group, with the Netherlands just holding out Chile for second. Spain is unlikely to get a point and will finish last. This, unfortunately, is the exact inverse of our tip for how the group will fare in the football World Cup. Prove us wrong Socceroos!!!
June 2014
It has been a long wait, but the time is almost here for the kick-off of the World Economic Cup. Australia has been drawn in the same group as the Netherlands, Chile and Spain. Urban Economics takes a look at the teams and their prospects.
Australia
World GDP Ranking (2012): 12th
The clear favourite in this group, Australia continues to kick economic goals on the world stage. Since aligning themselves with the Asian economic leagues, the team has dramatically expanded their export volumes, although they tend to be over-reliant on their mining midfield. The foundations of the team remain solid, having stable governance and incremental economic reforms over many years. With the financial sector as safe as a bank at the back and the always underrated education export sector providing variety in attack, Australia should be able to overcome a lack of depth in manufacturing and will be optimistic of finishing on top of this group.
They are not without their concerns though. Questions remain whether their star-studded mining line-up is past their peak and there is the on-going controversy whether some of Australia’s mining players even qualify to represent the nation. Australia’s high currency remains a concern and their new manager, Tony Abbott, has come in for some heavy criticism regarding his new tactics.
Netherlands
World GDP Ranking (2012): 18th
The match-up between the energy sectors of the Netherlands and Australia promises to be one of the highlights of the tournament. The Netherlands has a strong gas sector, both on-shore and from the North Sea and the team is the fifth largest natural gas exporter.
While the Netherlands may be small in size and population, they have a strong track record and punch well above their weight on the world economic stage. They are the sixth largest exporter (by value) in the world, benefitting from being in the EU. The Netherlands is the second largest exporter (by value) of agricultural products behind only the United States by establishing itself as the world’s leader in the high-end cut flower and live plant export markets.
The team is bolstered by very competitive corporate tax rates. Netherlands will field a side including several players that star in the biggest leagues of the world and will be relying on the bankable ING, the fluidity of Heineken and the guidance of TomTom. This team has the work ethic, resilience, economic structure and big names to go far in this tournament.
Spain
World GDP Ranking (2012): 13th
While ranked only one place behind Australia, Spain is a team in turmoil. Repeatedly smashed by Global FC in 2008 and 2009, Spain fell into a deep recession and has yet to substantially recover. Unemployment is rampant, the economy has collapsed and the government’s debt is massive.
Worryingly, this team is notorious for having no energy meaning it must import all its fuel requirements, making it vulnerable to shocks in this sector. Further adding to the nation’s woes, Spain’s youth team has barely gotten onto the economic playing field, with youth unemployment at a staggering 57.7%.
While major troubles continue to plague the team, the sheer volume of their economy, their experience and the backing of the EU mean that this team may well yet be a threat. Spain will be relying on manufacturing and tourism to overcome the resource-based strengths of the other countries in the group. Spain has a large car and car parts manufacturing sector, with major European brands having sizeable plants in Spain. In 2012, Spain was ranked fourth in the world in the number of international visitors, attracting some 57.7 million visitors, almost 10 times that of Australia.
Chile
World GDP Ranking (2012): 37th
Don’t let the GDP ranking fool you, this nation is on the rise and is a South American powerhouse. Another team that is dominated by miners, it produces one third of the world’s copper output. A leader in the South American conference, Chile has the highest standard of living and per capita GDP in Latin America.
Even more reliant on their miners than Australia, Chile has been criticised for being too one dimensional in attack. However, with a growing and increasingly influential middle class and bolstered by agricultural exports, particularly wine and fish products, the Chileans will be confident of causing some upsets in this group. Santiago is a thriving city with a growing reputation for innovation.
Tip
We predict that Australia will finish on top of this group, with the Netherlands just holding out Chile for second. Spain is unlikely to get a point and will finish last. This, unfortunately, is the exact inverse of our tip for how the group will fare in the football World Cup. Prove us wrong Socceroos!!!
Wednesday, May 28, 2014
Urban Excursions explores New York's Highline
The Highline – New York
With the Federal Budget released this month and the various interest groups still picking their way through the detail *yawn*, Josh takes a detour to New York and guides us down The High Line; an urban reproject that has had economic benefits that nobody budgeted for.
Nowhere in New York is ‘The City That Never Sleeps’ more apparent than the Meatpacking District where fashion, industry, nightlife and culture collide to epitomise New York style. Steeped in history the Meatpacking District as its name suggests was once a hub for trade and included hundreds of slaughterhouses and meatworks which sent and received product via a raised railway now known as ‘The High Line’.
Land on New York’s Manhattan Island is rare and expensive attracting development and investment from the biggest and boldest in the industry. It is of no surprise then, that the area occupied by some 3km of disused and dilapidated railway line dissecting one of its most recognisable areas was under pressure from developers to be torn down, a sentiment shared by former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani over a decade ago. Come my visit in 2013, The Highline was far from being removed and touted by outgoing Mayor Bloomberg as an ‘economic dynamo’.
So what changed?
Following the end of the High Line’s life as a rail track in the 1980’s, community and activist pressure saved a significant proportion of the structure from being demolished and subsequently formed a group, ‘Friends of the High Line’ which initiated planning and design for the raised track to become a public open space in the essence of Paris’s Promenade Plantée (tree-lined walkway). With construction on the third and final stage of the project underway when I arrived at the High Line via the 30th St entrance, it was already possible to recognise the economic activity which had been spurred by the some 4 million visitors per annum that it was attracting.
New apartment buildings were rising alongside historic meatworks and public housing, restaurants and artisans were squeezing into shop-fronts nearest the High Line entrances and mobile vendors patrolled the green course with the typical New York vigour. Some $2 billion worth of new investment has been attributed to the rejuvenation of the High Line, not including the $450 million Whitney Museum of Modern Art.
Residential real estate prices have also jumped (which is no surprise given how close trains used to come to the back of these apartments). On average, home prices in the Chelsea/Meatpacking District are around $1,600 per square foot, or over $1 million for a modest 60m2 apartment.
So, High Lines, Promenade Plantées, coulée vertes and green spines as tools for economic development? Apparently it’s a thing and the High Line has been attributed with inspiring numerous copy cats around the globe. Even Sydney has got in on the act, planning for ‘The Goods Line’ which will link Railway Square through Ultimo to Darling Harbour.
What economic potential could Brisbane’s mooted ‘Green Spine’ deliver? Maybe Brisbane’s BaT Tunnel (overlooked in Budget funding) will one day be more attractive as ‘The Low Line’?
With the Federal Budget released this month and the various interest groups still picking their way through the detail *yawn*, Josh takes a detour to New York and guides us down The High Line; an urban reproject that has had economic benefits that nobody budgeted for.
Nowhere in New York is ‘The City That Never Sleeps’ more apparent than the Meatpacking District where fashion, industry, nightlife and culture collide to epitomise New York style. Steeped in history the Meatpacking District as its name suggests was once a hub for trade and included hundreds of slaughterhouses and meatworks which sent and received product via a raised railway now known as ‘The High Line’.
Land on New York’s Manhattan Island is rare and expensive attracting development and investment from the biggest and boldest in the industry. It is of no surprise then, that the area occupied by some 3km of disused and dilapidated railway line dissecting one of its most recognisable areas was under pressure from developers to be torn down, a sentiment shared by former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani over a decade ago. Come my visit in 2013, The Highline was far from being removed and touted by outgoing Mayor Bloomberg as an ‘economic dynamo’.
So what changed?
Following the end of the High Line’s life as a rail track in the 1980’s, community and activist pressure saved a significant proportion of the structure from being demolished and subsequently formed a group, ‘Friends of the High Line’ which initiated planning and design for the raised track to become a public open space in the essence of Paris’s Promenade Plantée (tree-lined walkway). With construction on the third and final stage of the project underway when I arrived at the High Line via the 30th St entrance, it was already possible to recognise the economic activity which had been spurred by the some 4 million visitors per annum that it was attracting.
New apartment buildings were rising alongside historic meatworks and public housing, restaurants and artisans were squeezing into shop-fronts nearest the High Line entrances and mobile vendors patrolled the green course with the typical New York vigour. Some $2 billion worth of new investment has been attributed to the rejuvenation of the High Line, not including the $450 million Whitney Museum of Modern Art.
Residential real estate prices have also jumped (which is no surprise given how close trains used to come to the back of these apartments). On average, home prices in the Chelsea/Meatpacking District are around $1,600 per square foot, or over $1 million for a modest 60m2 apartment.
So, High Lines, Promenade Plantées, coulée vertes and green spines as tools for economic development? Apparently it’s a thing and the High Line has been attributed with inspiring numerous copy cats around the globe. Even Sydney has got in on the act, planning for ‘The Goods Line’ which will link Railway Square through Ultimo to Darling Harbour.
What economic potential could Brisbane’s mooted ‘Green Spine’ deliver? Maybe Brisbane’s BaT Tunnel (overlooked in Budget funding) will one day be more attractive as ‘The Low Line’?
A few World Cup Stats to get you in the mood as the Socceroos hit the road to #Brazil
World Cup-onomics
World Cup Brazil by Numbers:
$35 million - First Prize
$4 billion - FIFA's commercial revenue
$16 billion - Cost to Brazil
200 million - Population of Brazil
$514 million - Estimated value of the 23-man Brazilian squad
$79 million - Amount Christiano Ronaldo will earn this year
$12,000 - Amount an average Brazilian worker will earn in a year
3,140km - Distance between the Arena Amazonia and Estadio Beira-Rio venues
74,698 - Seating capacity of Estadio Do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro
6 million - Tickets available to matches
64 - World Cup Finals matches
$553 - Average resale price for a group match ticket
$180,000 - Approximate melt value of the gold in the World Cup trophy
750/1 - Odds being placed on Australia to be the outright tournament winner
World Cup Brazil by Numbers:
$35 million - First Prize
$4 billion - FIFA's commercial revenue
$16 billion - Cost to Brazil
200 million - Population of Brazil
$514 million - Estimated value of the 23-man Brazilian squad
$79 million - Amount Christiano Ronaldo will earn this year
$12,000 - Amount an average Brazilian worker will earn in a year
3,140km - Distance between the Arena Amazonia and Estadio Beira-Rio venues
74,698 - Seating capacity of Estadio Do Maracana in Rio de Janeiro
6 million - Tickets available to matches
64 - World Cup Finals matches
$553 - Average resale price for a group match ticket
$180,000 - Approximate melt value of the gold in the World Cup trophy
750/1 - Odds being placed on Australia to be the outright tournament winner
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Population versus the Qld Plan
Last week saw the release of the latest population projections from the Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR).
Some quick analysis has revealed some drastic changes from the previous release in 2011, the majority of which have anticipated a further increase in the concentration of growth within SEQ. Whilst this is not a totally surprising development, it is at odds with one of the target objectives within 'The Queensland Plan' which states "Half of Queensland's population lives outside South East Queensland". Currently supporting around 67% of QLD's population, SEQ is expected to increase its proportion to around 69% by 2036 to over 4.9 million people. We have long challenged the separation of regional planning from infrastructure planning and economic strategic planning. The population projections will have a significant input to the preparation of the new SEQ Regional Plan, but how do they sit with the Queensland Plan? Does this mean that the Queensland Plan will be simply rhetoric with little substance if regional planning continues to focus economic and population activity within the Sout East and not to reflect the Qld Plan intent to populate and grow economic strength of regional Qld?
The following are the Top 10 changes to population projections by 2031 for statistical areas between the OESR 2011 and 2013 editions, with some rather big "winners" in Coomera and Upper Coomera
Ripley -31,929
Coomera 25,280
Rosewood -19,949
Upper Caboolture 16,885
Greenbank 15,919
Inala - Richlands 15,538
Upper Coomera - Willow Vale 13,175
Helensvale -12,054
Springfield Lakes 11,987
Landsborough 11,604
No doubt this will require some radical new thinking for planning the mix of housing that will be required to accommodate these population changes in the "win" areas as there is quite a vast shift in some areas that will influence infill and greenfield targets for Ipswich, Moreton and Gold Coast. It is interesting to see some expectation of population growth in employment corridors eg. Inala-Richlands, although the majority of the growth "win" areas are greenfield areas detached from employment opportunities. Ripley, which was to provide significant employment for its growth corridorm, now with significant downwards projections on its population potential by 2031 - surely this will have significant implications also for the delivery of employment for the western corridor?
Waiting with interest for the first draft of the SEQ Regional Plan revision.
Some quick analysis has revealed some drastic changes from the previous release in 2011, the majority of which have anticipated a further increase in the concentration of growth within SEQ. Whilst this is not a totally surprising development, it is at odds with one of the target objectives within 'The Queensland Plan' which states "Half of Queensland's population lives outside South East Queensland". Currently supporting around 67% of QLD's population, SEQ is expected to increase its proportion to around 69% by 2036 to over 4.9 million people. We have long challenged the separation of regional planning from infrastructure planning and economic strategic planning. The population projections will have a significant input to the preparation of the new SEQ Regional Plan, but how do they sit with the Queensland Plan? Does this mean that the Queensland Plan will be simply rhetoric with little substance if regional planning continues to focus economic and population activity within the Sout East and not to reflect the Qld Plan intent to populate and grow economic strength of regional Qld?
The following are the Top 10 changes to population projections by 2031 for statistical areas between the OESR 2011 and 2013 editions, with some rather big "winners" in Coomera and Upper Coomera
Ripley -31,929
Coomera 25,280
Rosewood -19,949
Upper Caboolture 16,885
Greenbank 15,919
Inala - Richlands 15,538
Upper Coomera - Willow Vale 13,175
Helensvale -12,054
Springfield Lakes 11,987
Landsborough 11,604
No doubt this will require some radical new thinking for planning the mix of housing that will be required to accommodate these population changes in the "win" areas as there is quite a vast shift in some areas that will influence infill and greenfield targets for Ipswich, Moreton and Gold Coast. It is interesting to see some expectation of population growth in employment corridors eg. Inala-Richlands, although the majority of the growth "win" areas are greenfield areas detached from employment opportunities. Ripley, which was to provide significant employment for its growth corridorm, now with significant downwards projections on its population potential by 2031 - surely this will have significant implications also for the delivery of employment for the western corridor?
Waiting with interest for the first draft of the SEQ Regional Plan revision.
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Oktoberfest-ographics
As we say auf wiedersehen to Oktoberfest for another year, Kerri visits some Australian regions with Germanic roots. Urban Excursions October 2012 brought to you the Oktoberfestonomics, the price of a pint of beer in Australia relative to other countries as we saluted our love of German beer, German sausage and all things Oktoberfest. This year, we explore our Germanic demographic roots, Oktoberfestographics if you like. Well you cannot have a surname like Meulman without laying some claim to Germanic origins and all things Oktoberfest. Whilst my ancestors claim to be Dutch, there is some very small question mark over whether or not there is actually some German descent in my blood, and like many towns across Australia that changed their names at the time of World War I, did my ancestors deny their German heritage? It will remain a mystery, but in any event I am happy to claim some German heritage and this October 2013 edition of Urban Excursions explores Australia’s Germanic roots and ancestry.
Whilst a number of towns with German names or of German origin did indeed change their names around the time of the Great War, others survived or did not change. Hahndorf in the Adelaide Hills is perhaps the first that comes to mind when we think about German settlements and concentrations in Australia. The town of Hahndorf lays claim to being Australia’s oldest surviving German settlement and now has a significant tourist and day tripper function, but it too did not survive the anti-German sentiment at the time of the Great War and was renamed Ambleside, not reverting to its original name until the State’s Centenary celebrations in 1935. The original German Lutheran settlers in the Hahndorf area came to Australia fleeing religious persecution from the King of Prussia at the time. Sound familiar?
Establishing crops, the area became an important fruit and vegetable supplier for Adelaide and South Australia. The town and surrounding Adelaide Hills area retain strong linkages with their German heritage, with 11.5% of the residents of Hahndorf identifying as having German ancestry (compared with only 3.2% for Australia as a whole) and a significant 14.2% identified with the Lutheran religion, compared with only 1.2% Australia wide. Similarly, the Barossa Valley, famed for its wineries and vineyards, was originally settled by German Lutherans, with almost one quarter of residents of the Barossa-Tanunda SA2 identifying German ancestry and a significant 40% of residents were Lutheran at the time of the 2011 Census. Many of the now famous Australian wineries were established in the Barossa during this period; Seppelt, Penfolds, Tolleys, Jacob’s to name a few.
Another of Australia’s prominent fruit and vegetable growing regions, the Lockyer Valley, also claims strong German heritage. Almost 12% of residents of Gatton and 10% of the Lockyer Valley Regional Council area overall, identifying with German ancestry. The wave of German immigrants to Queensland was again effectively forced migration fleeing famine and poor agricultural conditions, in search of employment – again familiar? German migrants were recruited to the Darling Downs to work as shepherds to assist large pastoralists care for their flocks. The Eastern Darling Downs (excluding Toowoomba) including areas such as Oakey and Dalby also represents higher incidences of those of German ancestry (9.5%) Other towns such as Kalbar (formerly Englesburg but changed its name in the lead up to the Great War) and Marburg also represent significant concentrations of those with German ancestry compared with the national average (12.1% and 9.2% compared with 3.2%).
Both Queensland and South Australia have more prominent incidences of those of German ancestry than the other states and the Australian average, established by waves of effectively forced migration and laying claim to much of the development of the renowned food bowl areas of the Adelaide Hills and Barossa, the Lockyer Valley and Darling Downs. It may have been the original British settlers who brought beer to Australia, but as we come to the end of another Oktoberfest, we raise a glass to our German ancestors and shout “Prost!” or Cheers guys, until next month. Now……Ein Bier, bitte!!
Whilst a number of towns with German names or of German origin did indeed change their names around the time of the Great War, others survived or did not change. Hahndorf in the Adelaide Hills is perhaps the first that comes to mind when we think about German settlements and concentrations in Australia. The town of Hahndorf lays claim to being Australia’s oldest surviving German settlement and now has a significant tourist and day tripper function, but it too did not survive the anti-German sentiment at the time of the Great War and was renamed Ambleside, not reverting to its original name until the State’s Centenary celebrations in 1935. The original German Lutheran settlers in the Hahndorf area came to Australia fleeing religious persecution from the King of Prussia at the time. Sound familiar?
Establishing crops, the area became an important fruit and vegetable supplier for Adelaide and South Australia. The town and surrounding Adelaide Hills area retain strong linkages with their German heritage, with 11.5% of the residents of Hahndorf identifying as having German ancestry (compared with only 3.2% for Australia as a whole) and a significant 14.2% identified with the Lutheran religion, compared with only 1.2% Australia wide. Similarly, the Barossa Valley, famed for its wineries and vineyards, was originally settled by German Lutherans, with almost one quarter of residents of the Barossa-Tanunda SA2 identifying German ancestry and a significant 40% of residents were Lutheran at the time of the 2011 Census. Many of the now famous Australian wineries were established in the Barossa during this period; Seppelt, Penfolds, Tolleys, Jacob’s to name a few.
Another of Australia’s prominent fruit and vegetable growing regions, the Lockyer Valley, also claims strong German heritage. Almost 12% of residents of Gatton and 10% of the Lockyer Valley Regional Council area overall, identifying with German ancestry. The wave of German immigrants to Queensland was again effectively forced migration fleeing famine and poor agricultural conditions, in search of employment – again familiar? German migrants were recruited to the Darling Downs to work as shepherds to assist large pastoralists care for their flocks. The Eastern Darling Downs (excluding Toowoomba) including areas such as Oakey and Dalby also represents higher incidences of those of German ancestry (9.5%) Other towns such as Kalbar (formerly Englesburg but changed its name in the lead up to the Great War) and Marburg also represent significant concentrations of those with German ancestry compared with the national average (12.1% and 9.2% compared with 3.2%).
Both Queensland and South Australia have more prominent incidences of those of German ancestry than the other states and the Australian average, established by waves of effectively forced migration and laying claim to much of the development of the renowned food bowl areas of the Adelaide Hills and Barossa, the Lockyer Valley and Darling Downs. It may have been the original British settlers who brought beer to Australia, but as we come to the end of another Oktoberfest, we raise a glass to our German ancestors and shout “Prost!” or Cheers guys, until next month. Now……Ein Bier, bitte!!
Monday, November 11, 2013
Big Data.....Big Deal or Big Opportunity?
·
So
what is Big Data?
·
How is
it used?
·
What
can SME’s do?
·
How
can Urban Economics help?
I run a jaded eye over the latest
email from Coles Flybuys, and there presented for me are a series of fantastic
looking specials at my local Coles Toowong.
Curiously, these items seem somewhat familiar. I look a little closer, and yes every item on
that list of specials was something that I had bought at my last shop in
store. Cottee’s Cordial - son’s
favourite drink – Check! Mars Bars and chocolate buttons to make my specialty
Mars Bar Slice – Check! All magically on special and emailed directly to
me. Big Data at work.
A study in the US estimated that
retailers applying the information sourced through Big Data analytics would
improve operating margins (McKinsey) by some 60% whilst PWC estimated that in
Australia, there would be some $1.3billion in savings for business investment
when derived through data driven promotion decisions. With headlines like “every company needs a big data strategy to
avoid falling behind” and “Big data
‘vital’ to UK economy” reflecting the push for more informed decision
making, it is not surprising that the demand for big data analysts is projected
to grow exponentially – another 69,000 in the UK by 2017 alone, and that there
are a myriad of specialist programs aimed at assisting businesses mine and
interpret their data.
So what is Big Data and is it
really a Big Deal?
Big Data is essentially the term
applied to the use of technology in extracting insights and information from
the wealth of data that businesses have at their disposal in informing business
decisions. This can include internal sources
such as client invoices and customer accounts, employee records, website
analytics, business traffic counts eg. at a shopping centre etc, as well as
external data sources that can be overlaid to sift through critical pieces and
insights such as ABS data, social media information, financial markets etc.
Probably some of the easiest
observed outcomes of Big Data at work at this point in time are those inspired
emails that are really targeted at individual needs and aspirations, and more
importantly their shopping habits and patterns.
And we as consumers are generally ok with companies having this level of
access to our purchase patterns, where I shop, what I buy, how often, as long
as we feel that we are somehow being rewarded for this or getting some sort of
return. Loyalty programs are central to
this access to customer patterns and preferences for retailers, service
businesses alike.
Analysis of
internal and external information is vital for all businesses big and small!
Big Data analytics might be all
well and good for large organisations and government departments with the
resources, the extensive customer databases, the deep pockets to invest in the
technologies, and such opportunities may seem beyond the possibilities of small
to medium businesses. The reality is
that we all, to varying degrees, utilise data to inform decision processes,
including both internal and external data sources, and it is the advent of
technology with the capacity to drill further into the wealth and breadth of
consumer and business data that is changing the face of business decision
processes and communication strategies. Data
application itself is not new in influencing competitive strategies and
decision processes, rather it is the detailed analysis and application of
numerous extensive data sets that is rapidly changing and for which businesses
really need to be engaging to maintain competitiveness.
For small to medium businesses exploring
their competitive advantages, I think the key really needs to get back to a
focus on information and gathering insights from both your internal and
external sources. Understanding what you
already know is critical. Start a
conversation with yourself and explore your own customer data, what trends are
evident, who are they, where are they, how have they changed? What do you
already know and build on that. Consider a short form survey of your existing
client base to fill in some of the gaps, add a splash of ABS data and watch out
world!
Knowledge as they say is power, and
with that in mind, I do have a dinner party to prepare for, Mars Bar slice on
the menu, I better go shopping and I know just where to go to get a great deal!
I’d be happy to discuss how to
inform and add value to your business decisions through research, insights and
analysis. Let us take the Big Data out
of the equation and put information, insights and recommendations back in.
Kerri Bonwick-Meulman
(07) 3839 1400
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